Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (2024)

InsightsInvestment Research

In every recession and timeframe analyzed, Canadian bank stocks outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite.

Ryan Diamant and David AndrichOct. 17, 20234-minute read

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Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (1)

Given their recent quarterly earnings, Canadian banks are clearly facing a multitude of challenges. These include slower loan growth, contracting net interest margins, rising provisions for credit losses, and higher capital requirements. What’s more, if a recession does occur, Provisions for Credit Losses (PCLs) could increase even more and further reduce earnings for the sector. However, typically the best time to buy and own banks is during the reserve building phase while valuations are depressed. Once you come through the recession and the banks start to release reserves back into earnings, the strong earnings growth combined with attractive valuations drives strong stock performance.

In other Canadian banking news, we recently saw the sudden departure of Laurentian Bank’s CEO after just three years in the role. The departure followed a strategic review that ended without selling the bank, and a subsequent prolonged technology issue that prevented depositors from accessing their accounts for several days. It isn’t clear which event drove the departure —perhaps it was both — but this is the second CEO in a row to depart Laurentian Bank after a relatively short tenure.

Additionally, RBC Royal Bank recently injected capital into its U.S. subsidiary City National in an effort to lower funding costs and improve profitability in its U.S. business. We view this as a prudent move, but it doesn’t fully offset the pressures U.S. banks continue to face.

Historical performance of Canadian banks in recessions

Bank stocks typically underperform heading into a recession. They act as a proxy for the health of the economy. If the market is looking 18 months into the future, they expect a slowdown in activity from the banks. However, once we’re in a recession, banks typically outperform. The following charts show the returns of Canadian banks during and after recessions along with the start date of every recession over the last 40 years in Canada.

Canadian bank stock performance during 1990s recession — Start date: March 1990

Timeframe S&P/TSX Composite Banks TR Index S&P/TSX Composite TR Index
1 year 9.34 -2.12
2 years 13.72 2.38
3 years 7.76 1.22

Canadian bank stock performance during financial crisis — Start date: October 2008

Timeframe S&P/TSX Composite Banks TR Index S&P/TSX Composite TR Index
1 year 13.39 -2.30
2 years 12.39 5.92
3 years 8.31 2.65

Canadian bank stock performance during COVID-19 — Start date: March 2020

Timeframe S&P/TSX Composite Banks TR Index S&P/TSX Composite TR Index
1 year 17.75 16.27
2 years 24.53 17.04
3 years 13.24 10.89

The information was prepared by CIBC Asset Management Inc. using third-party service provider Morningstar Direct, as at August 31, 2023.

In every recession and timeframe analyzed, Canadian bank stocks outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite Opens in a new window.. Why? Markets are forward-looking and typically anticipate an economic recovery even while a recession is underway.

Canadian banks: A strong long-term investment choice

Despite headwinds, bank fundamentals remain solid. Valuations are now at multi-decade lows with high dividends that pay investors to hold through the cycle. As at August 31, 2023, Canadian Banks pay close to a 5.00% dividend yield, in comparison to a 3.55% dividend yield for the broader Canadian market, and 1.68% for the S&P 500 Index Opens in a new window.. (Indices used as a proxy: Banks — S&P/TSX Banks Index; Canadian market — S&P/TSX Composite.)

Canadian banks are some of the most well-capitalized, safest financial institutions globally, and long-term investors are being paid to hold onto them.

Overall, we maintain ownership of several banks within our portfolios at CIBC Asset Management. Very often, the best time to invest in Canadian banks is in the midst of a recession, and we continue to see medium to long-term strength in the Canadian banking sector (PDF, 215 KB) Opens in a new window..

CIBC Asset Management is committed to providing market and investment insights as well as best-in-class research. We want to help you find the right solutions to guide your investment journey. If you’d like to discuss equity investment opportunities or have questions about your investment portfolio, please reach out to your advisor or CIBC representative any time.

Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (2)

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Written by

Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (3)

Ryan Diamant, CFA®

Associate Client Portfolio Manager, Equities
CIBC Asset Management

Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (4)

David Andrich, CFA
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Management and Research

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Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (2024)

FAQs

Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds? ›

Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds. In every recession and timeframe analyzed, Canadian bank stocks outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite. Given their recent quarterly earnings, Canadian banks are clearly facing a multitude of challenges.

Are Canadian banks in trouble too? ›

Thankfully, experts say Canadian banks are significantly less vulnerable to failure than our neighbours' to the south, for many reasons, and your money in a Canadian bank will continue to be safe.

Why are Canadian banks stable? ›

Canadian consumers also help to keep banks profitable by paying for things like chequing accounts, and paying greater fees than U.S. consumers, Cheng says. More concentrated regulation is another key factor that experts cite to explain stronger Canadian banking stability.

What is the outlook for the Canadian banking sector? ›

Canadian domestic systemically important banks' (D-SIBs') profit growth is likely to remain under pressure in 2024 from rising provisions for loan losses and still-high expenses, although growth is moderating.

Is it safe to invest in Canadian banks? ›

Well-regulated sector

The Canadian banking sector is renowned for having a lot of oversight. This, coupled with their conservative lending policies, make it a safe and secure sector to invest in.

Is Canada's banking system shutting down? ›

The claim that "the entire banking system in Canada is shutting down" is not accurate. "The entire system is not closing down," Michael Geist, a law professor at the University of Ottawa, told PolitiFact.

What happens to my money if the banks collapse in Canada? ›

CDIC protects eligible deposits at over 80 member institutions, up to a maximum of $100,000 per depositor and per insured category. Eligible deposits include things like savings accounts, chequing accounts, and term deposits of 5 years or less. These deposits must be payable in Canada and held in Canadian currency.

What is the reputation of Canadian banks? ›

Unsurprisingly, Canada's Big 5 Banks take the top spots for most reputable banks. Taking the number one spot, with a reputation score of 36, is RBC, or Royal Bank of Canada. RBC offers a variety of banking services for individuals and businesses.

Is Canadian bank safe to keep money? ›

Conclusion. Keeping your money in a CDIC-insured bank and not going over $100,000 in account value protects your money. The Canadian banking system is so well-regulated that bank failure is unlikely. The assurance of a CDIC-insured bank can free you to find the right account for your financial needs.

What is the outlook for Canadian banks in 2024? ›

The banks' expectations for net interest margins/income for 2024 ranged from stable to slight expansion. The Canadian banks have strong capital ratios and could deliver more capital to shareholders in 2024 through share buybacks or dividends, in our view.

What is the future of Canadian banks? ›

Canada's banking industry is coming through yet another challenging period. Capital requirements, evolving risks, regulatory changes, technological disruption and macroeconomic volatility continue to complicate Canadian banks' growth agendas as they navigate the early months of 2024.

Which bank is growing the fastest in Canada? ›

EQB Inc (TSX:EQB) is Canada's fastest-growing bank.

Does Canada have a strong banking system? ›

Canada's financial system is one of the safest and strongest in the world.

Are any Canadian banks at risk of failing? ›

Banks rarely fail in Canada, but how many billions of dollars would be needed if there's trouble? Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation funds that are earmarked for protecting depositors when things go awry — and when all other resolution options are exhausted — are not at their target level.

What is the safest bank in Canada? ›

TD Bank. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) is the “safest” Canadian bank going by capitalization. Today, it has a 16.2% common equity tier-one (CET1) ratio. The CET1 ratio is cash plus equity divided by all risk-weighted assets.

Why are Canadian banks safer than US banks? ›

The only difference is that the Canadian banks have a larger share of loans. This is one of the main factors that makes them safer than American banks, even the larger ones. The Canadian financial system and the American financial system aren't really that different.

Is your money safe in Canadian banks? ›

Conclusion. Keeping your money in a CDIC-insured bank and not going over $100,000 in account value protects your money. The Canadian banking system is so well-regulated that bank failure is unlikely. The assurance of a CDIC-insured bank can free you to find the right account for your financial needs.

Which banks are failing in 2024? ›

Republic First Bank reported unrealized securities losses in excess of its equity as early as June 2022. State regulators closed Republic First Bank in April 2024, marking the first bank failure of the year.

Are Canadian banks laying off? ›

In a presentation to investors, CIBC said it has cut as much of five per cent of its full-time employees in its past fiscal year. That's almost 2,400 people. RBC and Scotia have previously announced similarly sized layoffs.

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