How hot is Earth in 2023?
This year will be the hottest on record — by a significant margin. Between January and November 2023, the world's average temperature reached 15.1°C (59.2°F), marking a record 1.46°C (2.63°F) increase from pre-industrial levels.
Though temperature records from December have yet to be finalized, climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have found there's a more than 99% chance that 2023 will have the hottest recorded global average temperature, beating out 2016, the previous leader.
DUBAI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - With a month to run, 2023 will reach global warming of about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, adding to "a deafening cacophony" of broken climate records, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday.
This year, as global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels reached a new high, the world fell further behind on its emissions targets. As 2023 drew to a close, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that it was set to be the world's hottest year on record.
Key global projections
Increases in average global temperatures are expected to be within the range of 0.5°F to 8.6°F by 2100, with a likely increase of at least 2.7°F for all scenarios except the one representing the most aggressive mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.
Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
It says that global average temperatures are estimated to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels sometime around “the first half of the 2030s,” as humans continue to burn coal, oil and natural gas.
This year has been so exceptionally hot in part because oceans have been warming, which means they are doing less to counteract global warming than in the past.
"If things follow the normal pattern, 2024 should be a bit hotter than 2023. But 'the normal pattern' may not exist anymore," said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University. "In any event, it's certainly going to be one of the hottest years in the record."
This year will be the hottest on record — by a significant margin. Between January and November 2023, the world's average temperature reached 15.1°C (59.2°F), marking a record 1.46°C (2.63°F) increase from pre-industrial levels. This warming surpassed that for the same period in 2016, the prior warmest year.
Will global warming end?
The world will continue to get hotter until it reaches the 500 ppm CO2 equilibrium temperature determined by physics. That could take centuries. Warming will continue long after net zero emissions is reached. Warming will only stop when we reach the CO2e level that determines our current temperature.
Climate shifts like heat waves could restrict the ability of people to work outdoor, and, in extreme cases, put their lives at risk. Under a 2050 climate scenario developed by NASA, continuing growth of the greenhouse emission at today's rate could lead to additional global warming of about 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050.
While the effects of human activities on Earth's climate to date are irreversible on the timescale of humans alive today, every little bit of avoided future temperature increases results in less warming that would otherwise persist for essentially forever.
By the year 3000, the warming range is 1.9°C to 5.6°C. While surface temperatures approach equilibrium relatively quickly, sea level continues to rise for many centuries.
(WTAJ) — Just how long will humans be able to inhabit Earth? That is the question a group of researchers at the University of Bristol in England think they may have answered. According to a paper published this week on nature.com, humanity might only have 250 million years left as Earth forms a new supercontinent.
Though the climate of Earth will be habitable in 2100, we will be experiencing new extremes. Each decade will be different from the previous and next decade. The climate future could be quite bleak.
If fossil fuel emissions do not abate, researchers predict snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade ranges could decline up to 45 percent come 2050, with low snow or even no snow seasons regularly occurring from then on.
Historical and Projected Temperature Trends in Florida
In the next 20 years, average summer temperatures are projected to rise above 83°F under both moderate and high emissions scenarios.
By 2050: Increased tidal flooding, more major flooding
A 1-foot rise in the sea level sends water over streets in the Keys, Miami Beach, barrier islands from Melbourne to Palm Coast, and at least part of every coastal city in Florida. And flooding will be worse.
“While we are predicting an uninhabitable planet in 250 million years, today we are already experiencing extreme heat that is detrimental to human health. This is why it is crucial to reach net-zero emissions as soon as possible,” Lo added.
What happens if we hit 1.5 C?
Climate researchers say the most drastic result will take the form of extreme weather events. Droughts are expected to become worse and last longer. Warmer ocean waters mean the number of strong hurricanes is expected to increase, as will the likelihood that they will quickly gain strength as they approach coastlines.
In the climate whiplash phase that follows this relatively moderate scenario, global mean temperatures are likely to climb 2–3°C higher than today by 2200–2300 AD, then enter a cooling recovery phase lasting as much as 100,000 years.
This Monday, 3 July 2023, was the hottest day ever recorded globally, according to data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The average global temperature reached 17.01C (62.62F), surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.92C (62.46F), as heatwaves sizzled around the world.
Death Valley holds the record for the highest air temperature on the planet: On 10 July 1913, temperatures at the aptly named Furnace Creek area in the California desert reached a blistering 56.7°C (134.1°F). Average summer temperatures, meanwhile, often rise above 45°C (113°F).
Not every summer is hotter today; some areas still see average or colder than average seasons from June through August. But the distribution of summer temperatures has shifted so that many more places endure hot summers more often than they did in the past.
References
- https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/
- https://www.sciencealert.com/california-s-snow-season-could-nearly-disappear-by-the-end-of-the-century
- https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/florida-climate-outlook/
- https://www.reuters.com/world/world-hit-14c-warming-record-hot-2023-2023-11-30/
- https://www.science.org/content/article/move-over-death-valley-these-are-two-hottest-spots-earth
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/20/climate/global-warming-ipcc-earth.html
- https://abcnews.go.com/US/matters-earth-brink-15-degrees-celsius-warming/story?id=104508627
- https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/environment/2023/08/23/flooding-sea-level-oceans-rise-climate-change-emissions-noaa-predictions/70640635007/
- https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/world/supercontinent-earth-intl-scli-climate-scn/index.html
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/29/climate-change-action-cop28-activism-adaptation-2023/
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/04/monday-was-hottest-day-for-global-average-temperature-on-record-as-climate-crisis-bites
- https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-7-2.html
- https://michigantoday.umich.edu/2021/06/25/will-the-earth-be-habitable-in-2100/
- https://news.yahoo.com/humans-extinct-scientists-answer-003838262.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/climate/extreme-summer-heat.html
- https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/what-happens-after-global-warming-25887608/
- https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/
- https://dnr.wisconsin.gov/climatechange/science
- https://www.fidelity.com.sg/beginners/esg-investing/climate-change-in-2050
- https://www.axios.com/2023/12/28/climate-change-extreme-heat-outlook
- https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change
- https://www.npr.org/2023/12/28/1221827923/2023-hottest-year-record-climate-change
- https://apnews.com/article/extreme-heat-global-average-temperature-hottest-year-record-4c5b496420620a02f9c295604cf8d2b3
- https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/climate/2023-hottest-year-climate/index.html